逃离卢布

巴黎—最近几周,俄罗斯卢布和俄罗斯股票市场的下跌紧随着全球油价的下降。但12月15日,一切都改变了。油价保持稳定,但卢布和股价指数在随后的24小时下降了30%。俄罗斯中央银行(CBR)采取了前所未有的行动,将利率从10.5%升至17%,但这一动作只是将卢布稳定了一小会儿便宣告失败。

俄罗斯“黑色星期一”的原因是显而易见的:政府对俄罗斯最大石油公司、国有的俄石油(Rosneft)实施援助。通常援助会安抚市场;但这一回援助让人想起了后苏联时代初期的实验——CBR向企业直接提供贷款,导致通胀急速升高。时任CBR行长格拉什琴科(Viktor Gerashchenko)一度被称为全世界最差的央行行长。

2014年CBR的境况比格拉什琴科时期还要糟糕:它无法直接贷款给企业。但它也变得能够更加复杂地实现与格拉什琴科所追求的一样的结果。

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