الهروب من الروبل

باريس ــ في الأسابيع الأخيرة، كان هبوط قيمة الروبل الروسي وأسواق الأسهم الروسية تالياً بشكل مباشر لانخفاض أسعار النفط العالمية. ولكن في الخامس عشر من ديسمبر/كانون الأول تغير كل شيء. فقد ظل سعر النفط مستقرا، ولكن الروبل ومؤشرات أسعار الأسهم خسرت 30% في الساعات الأربع والعشرين التالية. وكانت الجهود غير المسبوقة التي بذلها البنك المركزي الروسي في الساعات الأولى من صباح السادس عشر من ديسمبر لتثبيت سعر الروبل، من خلال رفع سعر الفائدة بشكل حاد من 10.5% إلى 17%، عديمة الجدوى.

كان السبب وراء "يوم الإثنين الأسود" شديد الوضوح: إنقاذ الحكومة لشركة روسنفت المملوكة للدولة، وهي أكبر شركة نفط في البلاد. الحق أن مثل عمليات الإنقاذ هذه تهدئ الأسواق عادة؛ ولكن هذه العملية أعادت إلى الذاكرة التجارب الأولى بعد تفكك الاتحاد السوفييتي، عندما أصدر البنك المركزي الروسي قروضاً مباشرة للشركات ــ الأمر الذي أدى على نحو ثابت إلى تغذية معدلات التضخم المرتفعة، حتى أن محافظ البنك المركزي الروسي فيكتور جيراشتشينكو في ذلك الوقت أطلِق عليه ذات يوم وصف محافظ البنك المركزي الأسوأ في العالم.

وفي عام 2014، أصبح البنك المركزي الروسي مقيداً أكثر مما كان في عهد جيراشتشينكو: فهو لا يستطيع أن يقدم قروضاً مباشرة للشركات. ولكنه أصبح أيضاً أكثر تمرساً في تحقيق نفس الغايات التي سعى جيراشتشينكو إلى تحقيقها.

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