与1937年的相似之处

纽黑文—1929年股市崩盘之后的萧条开启了此后八年更加惨淡的岁月,复苏直到导致6,000多万人死去的二战带来巨大的经济刺激才正式开始。当复苏最终来临时,欧洲和亚洲大部已是一片焦土。

目前的全球状况没有那么悲观,但确实与1937年有相似之处。与当时一样,现在的人们也已失望了相当长一段时间,许多人甚至感到了绝望。他们变得更加恐慌他们的长期经济未来。而这一恐慌可能带来严重后果。

比如,2008年危机对乌克兰和俄罗斯经济的冲击可能正是当前战事的背后原因。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,2002—2007年,乌克兰和俄罗斯都经历了卓越的经济增长:在这五年中,真实人均GDP在乌克兰增长了52%,在俄罗斯增长了 46% 。现在这些都已成为历史:去年乌克兰真实人均GDP只增长了0.2%,俄罗斯为1.3%。失望所产生的不满也许有助于解释乌克兰分裂分子的愤怒、俄罗斯人的不满以及俄罗斯总统普京决定吞并克里米亚以支持分裂分子。

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