与1937年的相似之处

纽黑文—1929年股市崩盘之后的萧条开启了此后八年更加惨淡的岁月,复苏直到导致6,000多万人死去的二战带来巨大的经济刺激才正式开始。当复苏最终来临时,欧洲和亚洲大部已是一片焦土。

目前的全球状况没有那么悲观,但确实与1937年有相似之处。与当时一样,现在的人们也已失望了相当长一段时间,许多人甚至感到了绝望。他们变得更加恐慌他们的长期经济未来。而这一恐慌可能带来严重后果。

比如,2008年危机对乌克兰和俄罗斯经济的冲击可能正是当前战事的背后原因。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,2002—2007年,乌克兰和俄罗斯都经历了卓越的经济增长:在这五年中,真实人均GDP在乌克兰增长了52%,在俄罗斯增长了 46% 。现在这些都已成为历史:去年乌克兰真实人均GDP只增长了0.2%,俄罗斯为1.3%。失望所产生的不满也许有助于解释乌克兰分裂分子的愤怒、俄罗斯人的不满以及俄罗斯总统普京决定吞并克里米亚以支持分裂分子。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/9vO22o0/zh;
  1. Patrick Kovarik/Getty Images

    The Summit of Climate Hopes

    Presidents, prime ministers, and policymakers gather in Paris today for the One Planet Summit. But with no senior US representative attending, is the 2015 Paris climate agreement still viable?

  2. Trump greets his supporters The Washington Post/Getty Images

    Populist Plutocracy and the Future of America

    • In the first year of his presidency, Donald Trump has consistently sold out the blue-collar, socially conservative whites who brought him to power, while pursuing policies to enrich his fellow plutocrats. 

    • Sooner or later, Trump's core supporters will wake up to this fact, so it is worth asking how far he might go to keep them on his side.
  3. Agents are bidding on at the auction of Leonardo da Vinci's 'Salvator Mundi' Eduardo Munoz Alvarez/Getty Images

    The Man Who Didn’t Save the World

    A Saudi prince has been revealed to be the buyer of Leonardo da Vinci's "Salvator Mundi," for which he spent $450.3 million. Had he given the money to the poor, as the subject of the painting instructed another rich man, he could have restored eyesight to nine million people, or enabled 13 million families to grow 50% more food.

  4.  An inside view of the 'AknRobotics' Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

    Two Myths About Automation

    While many people believe that technological progress and job destruction are accelerating dramatically, there is no evidence of either trend. In reality, total factor productivity, the best summary measure of the pace of technical change, has been stagnating since 2005 in the US and across the advanced-country world.

  5. A student shows a combo pictures of three dictators, Austrian born Hitler, Castro and Stalin with Viktor Orban Attila Kisbenedek/Getty Images

    The Hungarian Government’s Failed Campaign of Lies

    The Hungarian government has released the results of its "national consultation" on what it calls the "Soros Plan" to flood the country with Muslim migrants and refugees. But no such plan exists, only a taxpayer-funded propaganda campaign to help a corrupt administration deflect attention from its failure to fulfill Hungarians’ aspirations.

  6. Project Syndicate

    DEBATE: Should the Eurozone Impose Fiscal Union?

    French President Emmanuel Macron wants European leaders to appoint a eurozone finance minister as a way to ensure the single currency's long-term viability. But would it work, and, more fundamentally, is it necessary?

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now