Crescere fino a farsi male?

NEW HAVEN – Negli ultimi mesi è cresciuta la preoccupazione tra gli esperti di finanza e i media mondiali che un surriscaldamento dei mercati delle attività – immobiliare, dei titoli azionari e delle obbligazioni a lungo termine – possa condurre a una correzione importante e a una nuova crisi economica. Il pubblico non sembra esserne impensierito: Google Trends mostra un incremento delle visualizzazioni della chiave di ricerca "bolla del mercato azionario", che però non è neppure paragonabile ai livelli registrati nel 2007, mentre le ricerche relative al termine "bolla immobiliare" sono relativamente poco frequenti.

La preoccupazione degli esperti, tuttavia, è sana e rilevante poiché la convinzione della perenne efficienza dei mercati può sopravvivere soltanto se qualcuno non ci crede fino in fondo e magari pensa di poterci guadagnare giocando d'anticipo. Allo stesso tempo, però, essa nasconde anche dei pericoli, ovvero l’incognita di una forte reazione al ribasso.

Ultimamente le agenzie internazionali hanno lanciato vari moniti in relazione agli eccessi speculativi sui mercati delle attività, suggerendo che dovremmo preoccuparci di una possibile crisi. In un discorso tenuto nel giugno scorso, il vice direttore del Fondo monetario internazionale Min Zhu ha affermato che i mercati immobiliari in diversi paesi, anche dell'Europa, dell'Asia e delle Americhe, "mostrano segni di surriscaldamento". Nello stesso periodo, la Banca dei regolamenti internazionali ha dichiarato nel suo rapporto annuale che tali "segnali sono preoccupanti".

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