全球经济的故事风险

东京—世界经济体的波动原因大体上就是我们所听到和谈论的那些。这些流行的、与情感相关的故事有时会促使我们出门消费、开办企业、建造新工厂和写字楼、雇用工人;有时则会让我们心存恐惧、坐立不安,让我们将资源储蓄起来,削减支出,降低风险。它们要么刺激我们的“动物精神”,要么压制这一精神。

在来日本演讲的过程中,我震惊于与经济相关的故事给人们的思维和行为所造成的额积极影响,也震惊于变化如此脆弱。自首相安倍晋三于2012年12月重新执政并实施他的货币和财政刺激以及结构性改革计划以来,对日本人信心的影响可谓深远。根据国际货币基金组织(IMF)的数据,产出缺口——实际和潜在GDP之间的差额——从2011年的-3.6%收窄至2013年的-0.9%。

大部分世界其他国家缺少可以与“安倍经济学”相媲美的全面又易于理解的积极变化故事。据IMF测算,世界主要发达经济体产出缺口依然令人失望,2013年为-3.2%,只较2009年(全球金融危机最严重的一年,产出缺口高达-5.3%)向正常水平恢复了不到一半。

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