Zurück an den Abgrund

NEW YORK: Eine Interpretation von Finanzkrisen besagt, dass es sich dabei, in den Worten von Nassim Taleb, um „Schwarze Schwäne“ handelt – ungeplante und unvorhersehbare Ereignisse, die den Lauf der Geschichte ändern. Doch in Crisis Economics, meinem neuen Buch über Finanzkrisen – das nicht nur die aktuelle Krise, sondern noch Dutzende anderer in der Geschichte behandelt, und zwar in hoch entwickelten Volkswirtschaften wie Schwellenmärkten – zeige ich, dass Finanzkrisen stattdessen vorhersagbare „Weiße Schwäne“ sind. Auch was derzeit passiert – die zweite Stufe der globalen Finanzkrise – war vorhersehbar.

Krisen sind das unvermeidliche Ergebnis einer Anhäufung makroökonomischer, finanzieller und politischer Risiken und Verletzlichkeiten: Spekulationsblasen bei den Vermögenswerten, exzessive Risikofreudigkeit und Verschuldung, die überproportionale Ausweitung des Kreditwachstums, lockeres Geld, mangelnde Aufsicht und Regulierung des Finanzsystems, Gier und riskante Investments durch Banken und andere Finanzinstitute.

Die Geschichte legt außerdem nahe, dass Finanzkrisen mit der Zeit eine Verwandlung durchlaufen. Krisen wie die, die wir in der letzten Zeit durchgemacht haben, werden zunächst durch exzessive Verschuldung und Fremdkapitalisierung der Akteure des privaten Sektors – Haushalte, Banken und Finanzinstitute, Kapitalgesellschaften – angetrieben. Dies führt letztlich zur Neuverschuldung des öffentlichen Sektors: Konjunkturmaßnahmen und die Sozialisierung privater Verluste – Bailoutprogramme – verursachten einen gefährlichen Anstieg der Haushaltsdefizite und Staatsverschuldung.

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