中国需要新的增长秩序

香港——从1978到2012年,中国GDP从3410亿美元增长至83000亿美元(按2012年价格计算),年均增长10%左右,5亿人口因此脱贫。在很大程度上,这应当归功于以出口为导向的工业化及城镇化战略,为快速扩张的城市开辟了新的机遇。正是在城市中,劳动力、资金、技术和基础设施的汇聚,形成了面向全球市场的供给能力。据麦肯锡全球研究院统计,到2015年,全球75个最具活力城市中将有29个在中国

但这种城市驱动、出口导向的增长模式也带来了中国难以应对的挑战:房地产泡沫、交通拥堵、污染、不可持续的地方政府债务、与土地相关的腐败,以及社会福利分配不均导致的社会动荡。因此,中国领导人将其首要任务定为向(基于消费而非投资的)稳定、包容、可持续的新型增长模式转型。中国正在为快速发展的城市探索新的“增长秩序”。

当前的GDP-目标增长模式更多考虑了土地、劳动力、资金和全要素生产率等关键生产要素配置问题。然而,单纯重视产出却忽视了以人为本,即经济发展如何影响普通中国民众的生活及他们的互动行为。

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