Margaret Scott

Refrenar a la Europa de las naciones deudoras

MUNICH – Los países de la zona del euro acaban de acordar la decisión de facilitar 80.000 millones de euros en créditos muy favorables a lo largo de los tres próximos años y abrigan la esperanza de que el Fondo Monetario Internacional aporte al menos otros 15.000 millones de euros, pero el tipo de interés que Grecia debe pagar a los compradores de sus bonos estatales ha aumentado hasta un nivel sin precedentes de casi el 9 por ciento: 5,9 puntos porcentuales por encima del tipo de referencia pagado por Alemania, lo que representa 16.000 millones al año de euros más en pago de intereses por la deuda actual de Francia, que asciende a 273.000 millones de euros. Evidentemente, los mercados siguen creyendo que Grecia suspenderá el pago de su deuda.

Además, Grecia tiene otro problema enorme: su déficit por cuenta corriente asciende actualmente a la friolera del 13 por ciento de la renta nacional, lo que significa que se deben financiar anualmente 27.000 millones de euros mediante empréstitos o la venta de activos griegos. Como los inversores internacionales ya no desean financiar su déficit y ni siquiera se atreven a refinanciar la deuda griega actual, sólo quedan tres posibilidades.

La primera es que la Unión Europea aporte los fondos necesarios con carácter permanente, con lo que se crearía una “Unión Europea de Transferencias” en beneficio de los países deficitarios, incluidos Portugal, España, Irlanda e Italia. La segunda opción es la de que Grecia pase por una depresión, reduciendo sus salarios y precios. Por último, Grecia podría abandonar el euro y devaluar su moneda.

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