Neues Austarieren der Wirtschaftsbeziehung zwischen den USA und China

CAMBRIDGE – Während sich die globale Wirtschaft stabilisiert, wächst die Gefahr, dass die Vereinigten Staaten und China wieder in ihre Wirtschaftsmuster von vor der Krise abgleiten und damit sich selbst und den Rest der Welt gefährden. Trotz der offiziellen chinesischen Rhetorik, nach der eine neue globale Währung benötigt wird, um den Dollar zu ersetzen, und des Flirts der US-Gesetzgeber mit „Buy American“-Klauseln (die allen Angst machen, nicht nur den Chinesen) will niemand an einem Boot rütteln, dass fast gekentert ist. Daher erwirtschaftet China weiterhin einen gigantischen Handelsüberschuss, und die USA geben weiterhin Geld aus, das sie sich leihen.

Kurzfristige Stabilität erscheint derzeit gewiss attraktiv. Doch wenn die Handels- und Schuldenbeziehungen zwischen den USA und China lediglich dort wieder aufgenommen werden, wo sie aufgehört haben, was wird dann die Wiederkehr derselben unhaltbaren Dynamik verhindern, deren Zeuge wir gerade wurden? Schließlich waren die gewaltigen US-Auslandsschulden eindeutig ein Schlüsselfaktor bei der Entstehung des jüngsten Finanzschlamassels, während Chinas übergroße Abhängigkeit vom exportorientierten Wachstum es besonders anfällig für einen plötzlichen Einbruch der globalen Nachfrage gemacht hat.

Gewaltige Konjunkturprogramme in beiden Ländern haben dazu beigetragen, weiteren Schaden vorübergehend zu vermeiden, doch wo bleibt die notwendige Veränderung? Wäre es nicht besser, jetzt mehr Korrekturen in Form eines langsameren Wachstums nach der Krise hinzunehmen, als den Boden für einen noch größeren Crash zu bereiten?

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