Kenneth Rogoff, Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and recipient of the 2011 Deutsche Bank Prize in Financial Economics, was the chief economist of the International Monetary Fund from 2001 to 2003. He is co-author of This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly (Princeton University Press, 2011) and author of The Curse of Cash (Princeton University Press, 2016).
坎布里奇——今年夏天,美元表现出一飞冲天的态势。日元和欧元兑美元已跌至20年来的最低水平;欧元的价值长期超过一美元,但现在却徘徊在平价点附近。美联储广义贸易加权美元指数已经几乎回到2020年3月因新冠疫情爆发导致恐慌时所曾达到的峰值。事实上,按照美国及其贸易伙伴的通货膨胀进行调整后,美元价值已经高于当时。
尽管美国创下40年来首屈一指的年度通胀率以及自全球金融危机以来最糟糕的贸易平衡,但美元仍在飙升着。究竟发生了什么,美元是否注定会暴跌?
尽管人们认可汇率极难解释,更遑论预测,但似乎有四大主要因素正在影响世界主要货币的走势。最重要的是,美联储已经开始加息,因为美国经济似乎远未进入真正的衰退,美联储仍有空间进一步收紧政策。
To continue reading, register now.
Subscribe now for unlimited access to everything PS has to offer.
Subscribe
As a registered user, you can enjoy more PS content every month – for free.
Register
Already have an account? Log in