Quo Vadis, Irán?

BERLÍN – El Iran está desaprovechando la mayor oportunidad histórica que ha tenido desde la revolución de 1979 y tal vez en los cien últimos años incluso. Dicha oportunidad se llama Barack Obama.

La política de Obama de tender la mano al Irán es la que ofrece esa oportunidad excepcional... si –seamos de lo más optimistas– los dirigentes iraníes la aprovechan. Sin embargo, de momento hay pocos indicios –por no decir ninguno– de que vaya a ser así, porque, para los dirigentes del Irán, la oferta de Obama representa también un gran peligro. Nada temen tanto como abrirse y reducir la tensión con los Estados Unidos. De hecho, el régimen acogió con agrado a George W. Bush y su gobierno “neocon”, porque permitía a sus dirigentes cerrar filas y al mismo tiempo brindaba acceso libre a la influencia en el Iraq y el Afganistán.

Como todos los modernizadores parciales en los regímenes autoritarios, los dirigentes del Irán desean una economía, tecnología e infraestructuras avanzadas, pero no libertad, democracia ni Estado de derecho.  Eso explica su gran temor –en realidad, una obsesión– a las “revoluciones de colores”, aunque de facto están contribuyendo en gran medida a provocar una de ellas.

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