qatar foreign minister Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Выжидательная стратегия Катара

ДОХА – Когда 5 июня арабские страны Персидского залива объявили о разрыве дипломатических отношений с Катаром из-за связей этой страны с террористами, их сигнал был совершенно чётким: Катар должен вести единую со всеми региональную политику, а иначе ему придётся дорого заплатить. Прошла почти неделя, а Катар, похоже, не спешит уступать. Сохранению ситуации раскола способствует непоследовательность внешней политики президента США Дональда Трампа.

Объявление Катара региональным парией вряд ли изменит планы этой страны, причём по двум причинам. Во-первых, она просто слишком богата, чтобы ею можно было с легкостью понукать. Благодаря огромным запасам природного газа у Катара самый высокий  в мире уровень доходов на душу населения. Экономика Катара не сильно пострадает от торгового эмбарго и запрета на поездки, которые ввели Саудовская Аравия, Объединённые Арабские Эмираты (ОАЭ), Бахрейн и Египет.

Вторая причина, почему Катар может позволить себе спокойно выжидать, не реагируя на действия соседей: стратегическая важность этой страны для США. Здесь размещается авиабаза Эль-Удейд, передовая оперативная база Америки в её борьбе с Исламским государством (ИГИЛ). В результате, Катару удаётся ловко сочетать связи с исламскими экстремистами и хорошие отношения с США.

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