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卡塔尔的观望策略

多哈——当海湾阿拉伯国家6月5日宣布因卡塔尔与恐怖分子有染而切断与其的外交关系时,所传递出的信息明确无误:要么遵守区域政策,要么付出代价。近一个星期后,卡塔尔似乎并不急于让步。而美国总统唐纳德·特朗普不连贯的外交政策正在导致相关国家的裂痕永久化。

有两个原因导致将卡塔尔贬为地区贱民不太可能改变它的政策。首先,这个国家实在太过富有,很难轻易任人摆布。卡塔尔充足的天然气供应造就了全世界最高的人均收入。即使沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林和埃及等国对其实行贸易和旅行禁令,也很难重创卡塔尔经济。

卡塔尔能够静候邻国风暴过去的另一个原因是它在战略上对美国十分重要。通过设立在美国打击伊斯兰国之战中作为前线行动基地的乌代德空军基地,卡塔尔在与伊斯兰极端势力和美国的牢固关系中巧妙地实现了平衡。

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