Tim Brinton

Poutine et le syndrome de Brejnev

PARIS – Le parti vainqueur des élections législatives de dimanche, en Russie, était connu d’avance : Russie unie, la formation de Vladimir Poutine, qui, sans l’ombre d’un doute, remportera l’élection présidentielle de mars 2012. Mais l’enthousiasme qui a, depuis une décennie, porté son exercice du pouvoir s’est évanoui.

Certes, par contraste avec l’Europe, aux prises avec la crise de la dette souveraine, et les États-Unis, dont les dirigeants s’écharpent sur les moyens de juguler le déficit, la Russie a des allures de havre de stabilité et de continuité. Cette continuité a cependant des allures de zastoï, la stagnation de l’ère brejnévienne.

Une croissance annuelle moyenne de 7 % durant les deux présidences Poutine (2000-2008) avait permis à la Russie de rembourser ses dettes, d’accumuler près de 600 milliards de dollars de réserves de change, de rallier le peloton de tête des économies émergentes et de se convaincre qu’elle pourrait surmonter la crise financière de 2008, une décennie après celle de 1998, qui l’avait mise à genoux.

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