Dean Rohrer

Vorsorgliche Absurdität

PRINCETON – Viele Befürworter drakonischer Maßnahmen, die dem Klimawandel entgegenwirken sollen, gründen ihre Argumentation auf das so genannte „Vorsorgeprinzip“, demzufolge Präventivmaßnahmen zwingend erforderlich sind, wenn eine in Zukunft mögliche Katastrophe inakzeptabel schwerwiegend sein würde. Eine Kosten-Nutzen-Analyse – im Rahmen derer die Kosten von Gegenmaßnahmen gegen den Nutzen einer Vermeidung der Katastrophe abgewogen werden – ist nicht mehr zulässig. Es müssen Maßnahmen ergriffen werden, um der Katastrophe entgegenzuwirken, koste es, was es wolle. 

Dieses Prinzip veranlasst einige, für enorm kostspielige Maßnahmen zur Verhinderung von noch enormeren Katastrophen einzutreten, deren Wahrscheinlichkeit allerdings höchst ungewiss ist. Wenn eine Katastrophe unzumutbar ist, muss sie verhindert werden, egal wie ungewiss die Wahrscheinlichkeit ihres Zustandekommens ist.

Infolge des weitverbreiteten Vertrauens auf das Vorsorgeprinzip dominieren Schreckensszenarien mittlerweile die Diskussion um den Klimawandel. Es ist einfach, sich so schwerwiegende Katastrophen vorzustellen, dass drastische Maßnahmen zu ihrer Verhinderung vernünftig wären, und die Fürsprecher drastischer Maßnahmen können die Öffentlichkeit leicht mit ausgemalten Katastrophen verängstigen. Niemand weiß genug über die Ursachen des Klimawandels, um zu beweisen, dass eine ausgemalte Katastrophe unmöglich ist.

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