Dean Rohrer

Absurdité du principe de précaution

PRINCETON – Au nom du prétendu “principe de précaution,” bien des gens sont prêts à soutenir des mesures draconiennes contre le changement climatique. Ce principe stipule que, dans l’éventualité de catastrophes susceptibles de s’avérer des plus destructrices, tout doit être mis en œuvre pour arrêter ces catastrophes. On ne tolère plus le recours aux analyses comparant entre eux les coûts d’une stratégie de réaction et les bénéfices d’une stratégie d’anticipation. Quel que soit le prix à payer, il n’y a qu’un mot d’ordre: agir.

C’est un principe qui conduit les gens à invoquer des mesures aux coûts énormes, pour lutter contre des catastrophes encore plus énormes, mais dont la probabilité est extrêmement incertaine. Quelle qu’en soit la probabilité, une catastrophe demande des mesures.

Du fait d’un ralliement général au principe de précaution, les scénarios catastrophe ont confisqué le débat sur le réchauffement. Il est facile d’imaginer des catastrophes si terribles que toute mesure drastique en devient raisonnable, et ceux qui prônent les mesures drastiques n’ont aucune peine à effrayer le public, en évoquant ces catastrophes imaginaires. Personne n’en sait assez sur les causes du changement climatique, pour faire la preuve de l’invraisemblance des dites catastrophes.

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