London Tower Bridge Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

Un test britannico sulla ragione

PARIGI – Se gli elettori del Regno Unito decideranno di lasciare l’Unione europea con il referendum del 23 giugno non sarà per ragioni economiche. Potrebbero infatti optare per la Brexit perché vogliono la piena sovranità, perché odiano Bruxelles oppure perché vogliono che i migranti tornino a casa loro, ma non perché si aspettano dei grandi vantaggi economici.

All’inizio i sostenitori della Brexit sembravano avere due carte vincenti in mano legate all’economia. La prima riguardava il rifiuto schiacciante da parte dei cittadini britannici al trasferimento fiscale netto dal paese al resto dell’UE, attualmente pari allo 0,4% del PIL. Da quando il Primo Ministro Margaret Thatcher chiese infatti per la prima volta “i soldi indietro” nel 1979, i costi di bilancio dell’appartenenza all’UE hanno del tutto offuscato i benefici economici agli occhi dell’opinione pubblica.

La seconda carta vincente era invece legata al pessimo stato dell’economia dell’Europa. In termini di crescita di PIL, occupazione o innovazione, gli altri paesi europei sono infatti mediamente indietro rispetto al Regno Unito (e ancor di più rispetto agli Stati Uniti). Quindi se un tempo l’appartenenza all’UE era vista come una porta d’accesso alla prosperità, ora è sempre più considerata come un freno per il progresso.

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