London Tower Bridge Daniel Berehulak/Getty Images

Test der Vernunft in Großbritannien

PARIS – Wenn die Wähler in Großbritannien am 23. Juni im Rahmen eines Referendums für einen Ausstieg aus der Europäischen Union votieren, geschieht das nicht aus wirtschaftlichen Gründen. Möglicherweise entscheiden sich für den Brexit, weil sie ihre Souveränität wieder erlangen wollen, weil sie Brüssel hassen oder weil sie möchten, dass die Migranten wieder in ihre Herkunftsländer zurückkehren. Aber es passiert nicht, weil sie sich großartigen wirtschaftlichen Nutzen davon versprechen.

Ursprünglich schien das Lager der Austrittsbefürworter zwei starke wirtschaftliche Trümpfe in der Hand zu haben. Erstens die Tatsache, dass die überwältigende Mehrheit der britischen Bürger den Netto-Fiskaltransfer an die EU ablehnt, der sich momentan auf 0,4 Prozent des BIP beläuft. Seit Premierministerin Margaret Thatcher im Jahr 1979 erstmals „ihr Geld zurückforderte”, werden die wirtschaftlichen Vorteile in den Augen der Öffentlichkeit vollständig von den Kosten der EU-Mitgliedschaft überschattet.   

Der zweite Trumpf war der desolate Zustand der kontinentaleuropäischen Wirtschaft. Hinsichtlich BIP-Wachstum, Beschäftigung oder Innovation hinken andere EU-Länder im Schnitt Großbritannien (und in noch stärkerem Ausmaß den Vereinigten Staaten) hinterher. Während man die EU-Mitgliedschaft früher einmal als Zugang zu Wohlstand betrachtete, wird sie mittlerweile zunehmend als Klotz am Bein empfunden.

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