Armes reiches Land

Es fällt einigermaßen schwer, mit Norwegen Mitleid zu haben. Dank seiner enormen Ölreserven in der Nordsee hat es das Land zu einem Wohlstand gebracht, der noch vor einer Generation völlig unvorstellbar gewesen wäre und der es den Norwegern auch erlaubt, der Europäischen Union seit 1994 die kalte Schulter zu zeigen. Aber auch in Norwegen gibt es Probleme. Diese sind zwar keineswegs mit denen in Sub-Sahara-Afrika oder Afghanistan gleichzusetzen, aber doch ernst genug, um Sorge, wenn nicht sogar Mitleid hervorzurufen.

Wenn die Entdeckung einer derartigen Überfülle an Bodenschätzen zu unverhofftem Geldsegen führt, kommt es zu einer Verlagerung der Investitionen vom Bereich der handelbaren Güter (hauptsächlich Industriegüterexporte) hin zu den nicht-handelbaren Gütern (vor allem Konsumgüter und Dienstleistungen). Die Diagnose in diesem Fall ist sattsam bekannt und lautet "holländische Krankheit". Wenn nun die Quellen des Reichtums versiegen (in diesem Fall die Öl- und Erdgasquellen), bleibt eine Volkswirtschaft zurück, in der es zu wenige konkurrenzfähige Branchen, aber dafür zu viele leere Buchladen-Cafés gibt. Schmerzvolle Sanierungsmaßnahmen sind dann die logische Folge.

Die schlimmsten Fehler im Zusammenhang mit der holländischen Krankheit konnte Norwegen allerdings mit der Einführung eines staatlichen Erdölfonds, der nur in ausländische Anlageformen investieren darf, vermeiden. Mit dieser Regelung wird der inflationsträchtige Nachfragedruck vermindert und Politiker werden daran gehindert, den Reichtum des Landes mit politisch zwar vielversprechenden, aber ökonomisch fruchtlosen Projekten zu verschleudern. Norwegen hat allerdings kürzlich die Vorschriften gelockert und damit beginnen nun die Schwierigkeiten.

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