Eiffel Tower.

Pre-Judging Paris

KODAŇ – Mezinárodní klimatická konference v Paříži, která se koná koncem tohoto měsíce, je propagována jako příležitost zachránit planetu. Tak to vůbec není. Jak ukazuji v novém peer reviewed pojednání, dokonce i kdyby byla konference úspěšná, tak by uzavřená dohoda snížila do roku 2100 teplotu pouze o 0,05° Celsia. Vzestup oceánů by se snížil pouze o 1,3cm.

Může se to zdát překvapivé: stále posloucháme, jak se každá země zavázala k redukci emisí CO2 – takzvané “Zamýšlené národně určené příspěvky (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, INDCs).” PodleChristiany Figueres, vedoucí OSN pro klima, “mají INDCs schopnost limitovat předpovídaný růst teploty na 2,7ºC do roku 2100, což v žádném případě není dost, ale je to méně než do této doby odhadované oteplení o 4, pět nebo více stupňů.“

Figueresová se domnívá, že pařížská dohoda ukrojí z oteplování téměř 2°C, z 4,5°C na 2,7°C. Ačkoliv se se snažila řeč formulovat tak, aby to takto přímo neřekla, podle očekávání to tak většina lidí slyšela. Nicméně redukce se sestává téměř výhradně ze smyšlených čísel a zbožných přání.

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