Irans Schatten hängt über Pakistan

Die Zukunft Pakistans und seines Präsidenten, Pervez Musharraf, ist im Gefolge der Ermordung Benazir Bhuttos in Ungewissheit gehüllt, und manche ziehen Parallelen mit dem Sturz des Schahs und der Islamischen Revolution des Jahres 1979 im Iran. Einmal mehr scheint einem „pro-amerikanischen“ Autokraten die Macht rapide zu entgleiten, während sein US-Verbündeter ihm nur halbherzig beisteht. Liberale Elite und Intellektuelle lehnen sich lautstark gegen den Diktator auf, zuversichtlich, dass ihr Land auf dem Wege hin zu einer weltlichen Demokratie ist.

Die offensichtliche Lehre, die man aus dem Jahr 1979 ziehen kann, ist, dass Amerika damals seine gesamte strategische Beziehung mit dem Iran auf die Schultern eines unpopulären Diktators stützte. Als dessen Regime zerfiel, war es auch mit Amerikas Fähigkeit vorbei, dort seine Interessen durchzusetzen.

Doch für die pakistanischen Liberalen hält die iranische Revolution eine weitere Lehre bereit: Besessen davon, den Schah zu vertreiben, verfiel die Intelligenz des Iran einem Irrglauben über ihre eigene Gesellschaft und ihre Fähigkeit, siegreich aus einem abrupten politischen Umsturz hervorzugehen. Nachdem der Schah verschwunden war, verschlang die radikale Minderheit, die bereit war, für ihre Sache zu kämpfen und zu sterben, die „gemäßigte Mehrheit“ – und etablierte in kürzester Zeit eine islamistische Herrschaft.

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