Pakistán después de Bhutto

El asesinato de la ex Primer Ministro Benazir Bhutto ha aumentado el desorden en Pakistán. Como líder del partido político más popular del país, Bhutto trascendía en gran medida las divisiones étnicas y sectarias de Pakistán. Su regreso del exilio en octubre se percibió como un paso para detener la peligrosa fragmentación del país. Su asesinato destruyó esas esperanzas. El Presidente Pervez Musharraf debe tomar medidas inmediatas –la más importante de ellas, la formación de un gobierno de unidad nacional—para impedir que Pakistán se despedace.

Al tomar la decisión de que su Partido Popular participara en las elecciones parlamentarias de enero, Bhutto le dio una salida a Musharraf, quien ha estado asediado por múltiples grupos insurgentes, la amenaza del terrorismo en todo el territorio y la pérdida total de legitimidad. Tanto Musharraf como quienes lo apoyan en Washington esperaban que la participación de los principales partidos en las elecciones terminara con la crisis de gobernanza en Pakistán y generara apoyo popular para una confrontación decisiva con los talibanes y al-Qaeda.

Ahora, sin embargo, es probable que las elecciones se pospongan. En efecto, Musharraf podría verse obligado a imponer el estado de emergencia de nuevo, como lo hizo en noviembre, si la estabilidad de Pakistán se deteriora más. Hay informes de violencia en todas las ciudades de Pakistán. Karachi, una metrópoli multiétnica, podría caer en el caos total. En los años 1990, la violencia que ahí se dio entre el partido de Bhutto y un partido étnico local –que ahora es aliado de Musharraf—cobró miles de vidas.

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