准备迎接停滞

孟买—2014年已临近尾声,全球经济疲软依旧。美国也许看到了复苏强化的信号,但欧元区仍有步日本衰退后尘的危险,而新兴市场也在担忧出口拉动增长战略使使它们极易受国外停滞的影响。几乎没有信号表明2015年会迎来任何改善,因此决策者的明智做法也许是弄清楚全球经济表现持续萎靡的根本因素——以及继续如此下去的影响。

用国际货币基金组织(IMF)总裁拉加德的话说,我们正在经历“新平庸”。其影响是增长相对于潜力来说低到不可接受的程度,而我们能够做更多的事提振增长,特别是考虑到一些主要经济体正在与通缩纠缠。

常规政策建议敦促不断扩大创新性货币干预,即使政府被教导要把钱花在“显而易见”的需要如基础设施上。结构改革的需要早已得到了承认,但它们通常十分痛苦,在短期可能有抑制增长的作用。因此焦点仍在于货币和财政刺激——尽可能如此,因为债务积压的效果已经令人麻木。

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