Un Nuovo Tetto al Prezzo del Petrolio

LONDRA – Se c’è un numero che determina il destino dell’economia mondiale, questo è il prezzo di un barile di petrolio. Tutte le recessioni globali, dal 1970, sono state precedute come minimo da un raddoppio del prezzo del petrolio, e ogni volta che esso si è dimezzato ed è rimasto basso per sei mesi, o giù di lì, ne è seguita un importante accelerazione della crescita globale.

Il prezzo del petrolio, dopo essersi abbassato da 100 a 50 dollari, oggi si aggira proprio intorno a questa soglia critica. Dunque, ci si deve aspettare che 50 dollari siano il prezzo minimo o massimo del nuovo “trading range” del petrolio?

La maggior parte degli analisti considera ancora 50 dollari come la soglia minima- o addirittura il trampolino di lancio, in quanto il posizionamento nel mercato dei futures suggerisce aspettative per un rimbalzo abbastanza rapido ad un livello di 70 o 80 dollari. Ma l’economia e la storia suggeriscono che il prezzo di oggi andrebbe considerato probabilmente come il tetto massimo di un trading range molto più basso, che potrebbe scendere ulteriormente fino a 20 dollari.

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