Een nieuw plafond voor olieprijzen

LONDEN – Als er één getal is dat het lot van de wereldeconomie bepaalt, is dat wel de prijs van een vat olie. Elke mondiale recessie sinds 1970 is voorafgegaan door op zijn minst een verdubbeling van de olieprijs, en elke keer dat de olieprijs met de helft gedaald is en deze ongeveer zes maanden laag bleef, volgde er een grote versnelling van de mondiale groei.

Nu de olieprijs van 100 naar 50 dollar is gezakt, zweeft deze precies rond dat niveau. Maar moeten we nou verwachten dat 50 dollar de bodem of het plafond is van de nieuwe prijslimieten voor olie?

De meeste analisten zien 50 dollar nog steeds als een bodem - of zelfs een springplank, omdat de posities in de markt voor futuresverwachtingen van een redelijk snelle rebound naar 70 of 80 dollar suggereren. Maar de economie en de geschiedenis duiden juist aan dat de huidige prijzen gezien zouden moeten worden als een aannemelijk plafond voor een veel lager prijsverloop, dat zelfs zo laag als 20 dollar zou kunnen gaan.

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