Tehran Iran military missile truck ahmad halabisaz/ZumaPress

Cómo Irán está saliendo victorioso

TEL AVIV – En 2003, Estados Unidos -que, junto con sus aliados de la OTAN, ya habían ocupado Afganistán- derrocaron al gobierno de Saddam Hussein en Irak y doblegaron a su ejército. Los líderes de Irán, alarmados de que los estuvieran rodeando, no perdieron tiempo y le ofrecieron a Occidente un acuerdo conveniente que abarcaba todas las cuestiones polémicas, desde el desarrollo de armas nucleares -interrumpieron su programa nuclear militar- hasta la seguridad regional, incluido el proceso de paz palestino-israelí y su apoyo a Hezbollah y Hamas.

El reciente acuerdo marco sobre el programa nuclear de Irán ha tenido el efecto contrario. Si bien el acuerdo efectivamente frena el desarrollo de armas nucleares por parte de Irán, no restringe -ni siquiera aborda- las ambiciones hegemónicas del régimen en la región, para lo cual ya invirtió miles de millones de dólares y por lo que sufrió sanciones devastadoras. En consecuencia, el acuerdo marco está creando un caos estratégico en una región ya disfuncional. Un futuro en el que potencias regionales como Turquía, Egipto y Arabia Saudita (que trabajó estrechamente con Pakistán en el frente nuclear) posean capacidades para desarrollar armas nucleares se está tornando cada vez más factible.

Estos son días gloriosos para Irán. Después de más de una década de aislamiento diplomático y de sanciones económicas, su condición de estado con el potencial de desarrollar armas nucleares ha sido legitimada internacionalmente. Es más, ha logrado obligar a Estados Unidos a abandonar su sueño de un cambio de régimen, y convivir -y hasta comprometerse- con una teocracia islámica que le resulta repugnante.

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