Tehran Iran military missile truck ahmad halabisaz/ZumaPress

伊朗是怎样占据上风的

特拉维夫—2003年,美国——它与它的北约盟友已经占领了阿富汗——推翻了伊拉克萨达姆政府,占领了他的军队。伊朗领导人警觉地发现自己陷入了包围中,毫不迟疑地向西方提出了一个大妥协,包括了从核武器开发(他们中止了军用核计划)到地区安全(包括以色列-巴勒斯坦和平进程以及他们对真主党和哈马斯的支持)的所有争议问题。

最近的伊朗核计划框架协议起到了相反的效果。尽管该协议确实延缓了伊朗核武器的开发,但它并不约束——甚至不遏制——伊朗政权的地区霸权野心。为了这一野心,伊朗投入了数十亿美元,还遭致了令其损失惨重的制裁。结果,该框架协议正在已经混乱不以的中东地区创造战略动荡。土耳其、埃及和沙特阿拉伯(已经与巴基斯坦在核方面展开紧密合作)等地区力量未来拥有临界(threshold)核能力的可能性大增。

现在是伊朗的光辉时刻。在经历了十多年的外交孤立和经济制裁后,伊朗作为临界核国家的地位得到了国际合法化。此外,它成功地迫使美国放弃了推翻政权的想法,只能接受与和它对立的伊斯兰神权国家共存——甚至合作。

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