Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

Les maîtres des guerres de Syrie et d’Irak

DENVER – Le sort tragique de la ville d’Alep en Syrie, et de Mossoul en Irak, témoigne d’un profond manque de consensus au Moyen-Orient, et plus largement au sein de la communauté internationale. Ce désordre qui caractérise précisément l’ordre international complique considérablement la tâche consistant à mettre un terme à ces deux conflits.

Lorsque le terrible conflit syrien prendra fin, il n’y aura ni défilé de victoire, ni moment de catharsis nationale. L’heure sera davantage à une forme d’arrangement politique consistant à maintenir la Syrie au sein de ses frontières actuelles, conférant toutefois ici et là une autonomie locale, révélatrice de la diversité et – du moins à ce jour – de la méfiance mutuelle qui caractérisent les différents groupes ethniques et religieux qui la composent. Il n’y aura pas de manifestation de joie. Les attributs de l’État de droit n’existent pas en Syrie, de même qu’aucune institution autour de laquelle bâtir consensus sociétal ou primauté du droit.

Tant que ces principes ne pourront pas être définis, la guerre ne sera jamais véritablement terminée. Les accords de cessez-le-feu fonctionnent le plus efficacement – et le plus durablement – lorsque les combattants peuvent se figurer qu’un ensemble de principes, convenus plus largement par la communauté internationale, seront désormais voués à constituer la base du façonnement de l’avenir de leur pays.

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