Ahmad Al-Rubaye/AFP/Getty Images

叙利亚和伊拉克的战争狂人

丹佛—中东的悲剧双城记——叙利亚的阿勒颇和伊拉克的摩苏尔——表明该地区乃至整个国际社会从根本上缺少共识。国际秩序中的秩序缺位大大加深了结束冲突这一任务的复杂性。

当叙利亚的流血冲突终于结束时,不会有胜利大游行,也不会有全民宣泄。更有可能的是,将出现一个这样的政治安排,叙利亚保持当前边界,但国内实施区域自治以体现多样性以及——至少是暂时地——各个种族和宗教派系的互不信任。没人会感到高兴。公民国家的基本条件根本不具备,也没有能够赖以建立社会共识或法治的制度基础。

在这些宽泛的原则建立起来之前,战争永远不会真正结束。停火效果最好——以及维持最长——的时候是战斗各方终于明白获得全体国际社会一致同意的一系列原则是决定叙利亚未来的基础的时候。

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