US dollar.

Keine Angst vor einem steigenden Dollar

LONDON – Es gilt als fast sicher, dass die US-Notenbank Federal Reserve beim nächsten Treffen ihres maßgebenden Offenmarktausschusses am 16. Dezember die Zinsen erhöht. Wieviel Angst müssen Unternehmen, Investoren und Politiker aus aller Welt vor dem Ende der Nullzinsen und dem Beginn des ersten geldpolitischen Straffungszyklus seit 2004-2008 haben?

Janet Yellen, die Fed-Vorsitzende, hat wiederholt gesagt, dass die bevorstehenden Zinserhöhungen viel langsamer stattfinden werden als in vergangenen geldpolitischen Zyklen, und sie sagt voraus, dass ihr Höhepunkt niedriger liegen wird. Wenngleich man solchen Versprechen von Zentralbankern nicht immer vertrauen kann, da ihr Job oft erfordert, dass sie Investoren absichtlich in die Irre führen, gibt es gute Gründe zu glauben, dass die Verpflichtung der Fed auf „niedriger und länger“ ernst zu nehmen ist.

Das vorrangige Ziel der Fed besteht darin, die Inflation dauerhaft auf über 2% zu erhöhen. Dazu muss Yellen selbst nach Einsetzen der Inflationssteigerung die Zinsen sehr niedrig lassen, ebenso wie ihr Vorgänger Paul Volcker in den 1980ern die Zinsen sehr hoch lassen musste, sogar als die Inflation bereits fiel. Diese geldpolitische Umkehr folgt logisch aus der Umkehrung der Ziele der Zentralbanken in Amerika und aller Welt nach der Krise von 2008.

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