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特朗普对华贸易战的下一步走向

发自北京—美国总统特朗普和中国国家主席习近平可能已在刚刚闭幕的大阪G20峰会上达成协议,重开两国贸易谈判,然而终结这场贸易战的路径却仍不明朗。毕竟两位领导人去年12月在布宜诺斯艾利斯G20峰会上也达成过类似的协议,但最终都以失败告终,尤其是在特朗普将中国的和解态度误认为软弱之后。

而这回特朗普会否重蹈覆辙还有待观察。无论如何,我们有必要去考量未来几个月和几年内贸易战将如何展开—以及中国可以采取何种举措来保护自己。

在可预见的未来,进口关税可能保持稳定—既不会进一步提高也不会削减回原样。大阪协议使特朗普无法继续威胁对价值3000亿美元的中国出口商品征收额外关税,但也未能采取措施撤销美方过去的举措,例如特朗普政府在5月份上一轮谈判破裂后对2000亿美元中国出口商品上调15%关税(最终达25%关税水平)的措施。

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