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Un nuevo modelo para la inversión de China en el extranjero

PEKÍN – Dos iniciativas chinas – “Un cinturón, una ruta” (UCUR) y “Cooperación para la producción en el extranjero” – encapsulan los puntos de vista del Presidente Xi Jinping con respecto a las inversiones en el extranjero de China. Ambos lemas están respaldados por enfoques de desarrollo (el primero aplicable a Eurasia, el último a nivel mundial) que envían señales sobre el deseo que tiene China de forjar un nuevo modelo para la globalización, un modelo que sea construido sobre la base de la cooperación mutua.

Las empresas chinas ya están tomando en serio estas directrices de inversión. Se pronostica que hasta el año 2020 los activos de China en el extranjero se tripliquen, hasta llegar a 20 millones de millones de dólares, desde su actual nivel de 6.4 millones de millones de dólares. Sin embargo, trasladarse rápidamente para invertir en proyectos en el extranjero, si bien es atractivo para muchos, conlleva también grandes riesgos – y podría traducirse en un endeudamiento alto – si estos emprendimientos no se gestionan de manera adecuada. Si las empresas chinas, tanto estatales como privadas, van a beneficiarse de la nueva visión de los líderes chinos, estas empresas deben aprender de los fracasos del pasado y adaptar sus prioridades de largo plazo.

Una zona clave donde China está tratando de remodelar su estrategia de inversión en el extranjero es América Latina. En los últimos años, China, de forma vigorosa, ha ido tras una reestructuración de sus vínculos bilaterales, tanto diplomáticos como económicos, en la región. La publicación en noviembre del 2016 del segundo Documento sobre la Política de China hacia América Latina y el Caribe, (de manera posterior a la visita de Xi a América Latina, que ocurrió el mismo mes) ha creado una oportunidad única para profundizar la inversión bilateral, colocándola dentro de un marco más cooperativo. Planteamientos anteriores, a menudo respaldados por préstamos riesgosos que en algunos casos entraron en mora, causaron perjuicios a los inversionistas chinos.

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