Erwin Scheriau/AFP/Getty Images

Трамп и НАТО – серьёзный взгляд

ВАРШАВА – Президентство Дональда Трампа станет катастрофой для НАТО и Запада. Трамп не только грозится выходом США из соглашения о Североамериканской зоне свободной торговли (НАФТА) и началом торговой войны с Китаем, он ещё и хвалит российского президента Владимира Путина, а также предлагает Америке отказаться от соблюдения обязательств защищать союзников по НАТО, если те не начнут больше платить за эту защиту.

Шансы Трампа постепенно тают, но Евросоюзу следует воспринимать появление его кандидатуры как тревожный звонок для обороны ЕС. Совокупный ВВП стран ЕС чуть выше, чем у Америки, однако их общий взнос в оборонный бюджет НАТО равен всего лишь 25%. На долю США приходится 72%, остальное перечисляют Канада и Турция.

Если Россия предпримет наступление на территорию страны НАТО, используя обычные вооружения, и потерпит поражение, она может первой нанести ядерный удар по Европе. Дело в том, что Россия – в отличие от СССР – не исключает использования ядерного оружия в наступательных целях. В таком сценарии американский ядерный щит станет единственной надёжной защитой для Европы. Но ответив на российскую ядерную атаку, США рискуют подвергнуть свою территорию и войска контрудару со стороны России. Такова мрачная логика гарантированного взаимного уничтожения.

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