Las opciones idóneas para 2015

WASHINGTON, DC – Cuando 2014 se acerca a su fin, las autoridades de todo el mundo afrontan tres alternativas fundamentales: esforzarse por conseguir crecimiento económico o aceptar el estancamiento, esforzarse por mejorar la estabilidad o arriesgarse a sucumbir a la fragilidad y cooperar o ir por libre. Lo que está en juego no podría ser mayor; 2015 se anuncia como un año decisivo para la comunidad mundial.

Para empezar, hacen falta crecimiento y puestos de trabajo para sostener la prosperidad y la cohesión social tras la “gran recesión” que comenzó en 2008. Seis años después del estallido de la crisis financiera, la recuperación sigue siendo débil y desigual. Para 2014 se proyecta un crecimiento mundial de sólo 3,3 por ciento y para 2015 de 3,85 por ciento. Algunas economías importantes siguen luchando contra la deflación. Más de doscientos millones de personas están desempleadas. La economía mundial corre el peligro de quedar estancada en una “nueva mediocridad”: un nuevo período de crecimiento lento y débil creación de empleo.

Para liberarnos del estancamiento, necesitamos un nuevo impulso político. Si se aplican las medidas acordadas por los dirigentes reunidos en el G-20 el pasado mes de noviembre, elevarán el PIB mundial en más de un dos por ciento en 2018: el equivalente de añadir dos billones de dólares a la renta mundial. Además, en 2025, si se logra el loable –aunque no excesivamente ambicioso– objetivo de eliminar en un 25 por ciento el desfase entre los sexos, cien millones de mujeres podrían tener puestos de trabajo de los que carecían antes. Los dirigentes mundiales han pedido al Fondo Monetario Internacional que supervise la aplicación de esas estrategias en pro del crecimiento. Lo haremos, país por país y reforma por reforma.

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