Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Saul Loeb/Getty Images

中央银行合方能利,不合必败

纽约—全球经济正在朝复苏的方向走,尽管缓慢,但非常确定。国际货币基金组织(IMF)的最新世界经济展望预测今年全球增长为3.5%,较去年的3.2%有所提高。但有一个问题:让经济回归增长的宽松货币政策正在达到极限,现在,它们有可能在为新的金融危机创造条件,对复苏起到干扰作用。

近几年来,世界主要央行采取了前所未有的宽松货币政策,包括德意志银行最新报告中所谓的“几百年来最低水平的利率”。这,再加上大规模量化宽松,在过去九年中为全球经济注入了32万亿美元巨资。但这些非常规政策正在转变为经典的博弈论坏均衡:每个央行都能从保持低利率中获利,但从集体角度,它们的方针却构成了一个陷阱。

在当今全球化的世界,个别央行略微调低利率能够带来一些好处,首先是货币贬值,从而提振出口。但采取这一策略的国家越多,银行业的压力就越大。在欧洲,这一点已经表露无遗,欧洲银行股价在最近几个月中稳步下跌。

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