Adieu au ciblage de l’inflation?

NEWPORT BEACH – En l'espace de quatre jours à la mi-décembre, trois événements apparemment indépendants ont donné à penser que la pratique des banques centrales modernes est en train de connaître une révolution historique. Les implications dépassent largement les cercles académique et politique. Si ce changement de paradigme se concrétise – ce qui semble probable – il affectera les performances économiques, le fonctionnement des marchés et l'évaluation du prix des actifs.

La série des trois événements a débuté le 12 décembre aux États-Unis, lorsque la Réserve fédérale, menée par Ben Bernanke, a annoncé qu'elle ferait bien plus que doubler (à un milliard de dollar) le volume de ses achats de titres boursiers en 2013 destinés à stimuler l'économie. La Fed n’a également laissé aucun doute quant au fait qu’elle maintiendrait son pied sur l'accélérateur tant que le taux de chômage aux USA ne diminue pas de façon significative, au moins à 6,5% , et tant que l'inflation reste contenue à ou en dessous de 2,5%.

Selon la plupart des analystes, la vraie nouveauté de l'annonce résidait dans la volonté de la Fed d'être explicite quant aux seuils quantitatifs de ses politiques et, par conséquent, quant à l'évolution future de sa politique monétaire. Toutefois, ma lecture de ce que la Fed a annoncé (et ce que Bernanke a déclaré dans la conférence de presse qui a suivi) suggère que l'innovation va au-delà de cela.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/cnWuQ3Y/fr;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.


    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?


    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now