Las tres vías de Oriente Medio

LAGUNA BEACH – Durante un reciente viaje a Oriente Medio, me llamó la atención el desfase cada vez mayor entre los países... hasta el punto de que, más que nunca, me marché convencido de que en la actualidad carece de sentido hablar de esa región como de un todo coherente. En lugar de perseguir la convergencia interna, esa importante parte del mundo está ahora siguiendo al menos tres vías, caracterizadas por grandes divergencias que persistirán –y probablemente aumentarán– en años futuros.

En una vía están países como el Iraq, Libia y Siria, que están esforzándose por evitar la espantosa trampa de convertirse en Estados fallidos. Todos ellos comparten la desafortunada probabilidad de que su situación empeore antes de mejorar.

Ese grupo de países se ve cada vez más hundido por una terrible combinación de violencia, fragmentación política, desintegración social e implosión económica. Su capacidad para ponerse en orden es escasa y, en algunos casos, casi inexistente. Lo trágico –y más probable– es que persistirá un sufrimiento tremendo y las oleadas de emigración humana que induce ejercerán una gran presión en los países adyacentes, en particular Jordania y el Líbano.

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