Le Moyen-Orient éclaté

LAGUNA BEACH – Lors d'un récent voyage au Moyen-Orient, j'ai été frappé par le fossé croissant entre les pays de la région, au point d'être plus que jamais convaincu que l'on commet une erreur en parlant du Moyen-Orient comme d'une entité cohérente. Les pays de cette région importante de la planète poursuivent des trajectoires divergentes et leurs divergences vont persister et probablement se creuser dans les années à venir. Aussi peut-on répartir ces pays en trois groupes.

Dans le premier se trouvent l'Irak, la Libye et la Syrie qui se débattent pour éviter l'éclatement de l'Etat. Leur situation risque de s'aggraver encore en raison d'une terrible combinaison de violence, de fragmentation politique, de désintégration sociale et d'implosion économique. Leur capacité à s'en sortir par eux-mêmes est limitée et peut-être même totalement absente dans certains cas. Malheureusement, les terribles souffrances de leurs populations vont sans doute perdurer et provoquer des vagues migratoires qui vont exercer une pression difficilement supportable sur les pays voisins, notamment la Jordanie et le Liban.

A l'extrême opposé se trouvent les pays dont la puissance va croissante. Bénéficiant des revenus du pétrole, des pays comme les Emirats arabes unis vont de l'avant avec des programmes variés destinés à diversifier leurs moteurs de croissance, renforcer leur potentiel humain et matériel et constituer des réserves financières toujours plus imposantes pour les prochaines générations. Ces pays vont de succès en succès - des succès qui il y a peu de temps paraissaient trompeurs, si ce n'est irréalistes, aux yeux de la plupart des observateurs extérieurs. Ils acquièrent dans ce processus un élan toujours plus grand vers le développement, ce qui augmente la probabilité et l'importance de leurs prochains succès.

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