Cómo alcanzar la velocidad de escape

NEWPORT BEACH – No es frecuente que uno pueda afirmar, con confianza, que un remedio por sí solo podría mejorar significativamente la vida de miles de millones de personas alrededor del mundo, que dicho remedio podría alcanzar este cometido de una manera perdurable y de apoyo mutuo, y que por lo tanto, podría mejorar el bienestar de las actuales y futuras generaciones. Sin embargo, esa es la afirmación que hago hoy.

El remedio que tengo en mente, por supuesto, es un crecimiento económico más rápido – la única cosa que puede elevar los niveles de vida, reducir las desigualdades excesivas, mejorar las perspectivas de empleo, aliviar las tensiones relativas al comercio internacional, y que incluso puede moderar las presiones geopolíticas. Y la mayoría de los analistas – incluyéndose entre los mismos a los analistas del Fondo Monetario Internacional y del Banco Mundial – ahora predicen que el crecimiento a nivel mundial se acelerará en el año 2014, y que el mismo será más equilibrado entre las principales regiones económicas del mundo.

Tales predicciones reflejan tres acontecimientos que son muy bienvenidos. Para empezar, Europa saldrá de la recesión, y las economías periféricas se beneficiarán de una muy fuerte mejora relativa en las perspectivas de crecimiento. Simultáneamente, un 3% de crecimiento anual del PIB ya no será algo inalcanzable para Estados Unidos. Y las economías emergentes se verán sostenidas por el crecimiento anual del 7% de China, que aunque es más lento, sigue siendo robusto.

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