El mundo color de rosa de los mercados

LAGUNA BEACH – Este ha sido un año inusual para la economía mundial, que ha estado  caracterizado por una serie de cambios no anticipados en el mercado, económicos y geopolíticos –y es probable que continúen así las cosas en el último trimestre del año. El desenlace de estos sucesos tendrá un impacto importante en la efectividad de las políticas públicas– entre otros aspectos. Así pues, ¿por qué el comportamiento de los mercados financieros es como si funcionaran en un mundo aparte?

Los mercados de capital, aparentemente indiferentes por el crecimiento poco satisfactorio en economías avanzadas y economías emergentes o por las tensiones geopolíticas crecientes en Europa oriental y Medio Oriente, han roto un récord tras otro este año. Esta impresionante evolución ha ignorado una serie de relaciones históricas, incluida la correlación de larga data entre el desempeño de los valores y los bonos gubernamentales. De hecho, la correlación entre diferentes tipos de activos financieros ha sido atípica y algunas veces, inestable.

Mientras tanto, en cuanto al diseño de políticas, la cohesión de la política monetaria de países avanzados está dando lugar a un sistema de múltiples vías, en el que el Banco Central Europeo acelera el ritmo en el tema de los estímulos, y la Reserva Federal estadounidense lo apacigua. Estos factores hacen que la economía global llegue con gran incertidumbre en diferentes áreas al último trimestre del año.

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