Violence in Syria Karam Almasri/ZumaPress

Escapar del círculo de violencia en Medio Oriente

OXFORD – El mundo árabe y sus vecinos están atrapados en un círculo de violencia. Los conflictos en Libia, Siria, Yemen e Irak, aunado a las depredaciones de grupos como el estado islámico, están destruyendo las relaciones económicas necesarias para asegurar la estabilidad política de largo plazo. De hecho, con el rediseño de las fronteras económicas de la región, la última ola de violencia ha propiciado una verdadera sacudida comercial, cuyas dimensiones y significado reales han pasado casi desapercibidos.

Incluso cuando la proliferación de grupos armados hace las fronteras más permeables al conflicto, con todo se están acorazando contra el comercio. Las consecuencias se sienten más  en el Levante, donde el transporte mejorado y las reformas comerciales habían fortalecido las relaciones económicas entre Irak, Jordania, Líbano y Siria.

El comercio entre estos países ha sido mayor, en promedio, que el de sus pares árabes. Sin embargo, ha caído a medida que la violencia ha crecido. El cierre de fronteras de Siria, en particular, ha impedido el comercio en la región, debido a que la ruta clave que conecta con el Levante, los Estados del Golfo y Turquía fue desactivada. Entre los afectados están los productores de manzana de Líbano, que viven de las exportaciones. Desde 2011, Líbano ha perdido casi todos sus mercados de exportación en Jordania, Irak y el Golfo Pérsico.

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