Iranian Muslims perform Eid al-Fitr Prayer at Shah Abdol Azim Shrine in Tehran Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

中东宗教在政治上的衰落

特拉维夫——当人们想到中东冲突时,宗教因素很可能首先映入脑海。但现在,竞争性战略利益和帝国野心在界定地区政治时所发挥的作用比宗教或派系分裂要大得多。这是一种潜在的积极进步。

例如沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的区域影响力之争。尽管长期以来一直被视为逊尼和什叶派分歧的结果,但实际却是两大对立政治体系之间的竞争:伊朗革命政权一心要改变地区的权力平衡,而沙特阿拉伯的保守君主制则是原有地区秩序的维护者。

在这样的情况下,伊朗支持阿拉伯之春起义可以解释得通。如果中东由阿拉伯主导,必然视非阿拉伯的伊朗为天然的敌人;但如果中东由穆斯林主导,那么伊朗伊斯兰共和国就有可能成为霸主。因此伊朗迅速选择支持自由选举,因为他们预测选民会将权力交到伊斯兰分子手中。

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