John Overmyer

¿Qué es lo que enferma a Francia?

PARÍS – Francia está gravemente enferma. De hecho, está tan enferma que Standard & Poor’s recientemente redujo su calificación crediticia soberana – y dicho descenso de calificación fue el segundo en menos de dos años. La decisión vino acompañada de advertencias que indican que las reformas presupuestarias y estructurales implementadas por el gobierno del presidente François Hollande a lo largo del último año fueron inadecuadas para mejorar las perspectivas de crecimiento a mediano plazo de Francia. En la actualidad, la presión se centra en las reformas estructurales que cubren todos los ámbitos, desde los mercados laborales hasta los sistemas impositivos.

No obstante que el descenso de calificación que realizó S & P fue inesperado, no puede decirse que causó un shock. La reciente baja en la producción industrial de Francia ha causado grandes déficits en la balanza comercial del país, y está menoscabando la competitividad de las empresas pequeñas y medianas. El desempleo se sitúa en alrededor del 11%, y el pasado mes de octubre 3,3 millones de trabajadores se encontraban inscritos como desempleados, está es la cifra récord más alta registrada en el país.

Simultáneamente, la crisis política se constituye en un obstáculo para los esfuerzos gubernamentales dirigidos a procurar implementar reformas difíciles. Los líderes franceses han mostrado su incompetencia para comunicarse de forma efectiva o para aplicar las experiencias pasadas con el fin de analizar las amenazas actuales. Por el contrario, estos líderes están recurriendo a tácticas de distracción involucrándose en batallas retóricas rimbombantes sobre controversias de menor importancia. Sin embargo, ellos no pueden ignorar eternamente los problemas que están a su cargo, y las consecuencias de retrasar las reformas que Francia necesita podrían ser catastróficas.

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