La modélica crisis de Irlanda

DUBLÍN – Irlanda acaba de liberarse del marco de rescate a cambio de austeridad establecido por la Troika (la Comisión Europea, el Banco Central Europeo y el Fondo Monetario Internacional) para los países endeudados de la zona del euro y encabeza la recuperación económica de la unión monetaria. Las autoridades europeas, incluido Jean-Claude Trichet, ex Presidente del BCE, han indicado que el perseverante compromiso de Irlanda con la austeridad es un modelo para otros países.

¿De verdad es así? No hace mucho que se consideró también un modelo el milagro económico de Irlanda –lo que The Economist llamó en 1997 “la brillante luz de Europa”, que atrajo a admiradores tan diversos y distantes como China e Israel. Después, Irlanda pasó a ser un modelo de cómo no se debe gestionar una burbuja inmobiliaria y, posteriormente, una crisis bancaria. Aunque no cabe duda de que salir del programa de la Troika es un éxito, en particular si lo comparamos con la pésima perspectiva del país al final de 2010, nadie debería aspirar a lo que Irlanda ha padecido.

La mayoría de los ciudadanos irlandeses rechazarían también la idea de que su país ha sido un modelo paciente de austeridad. El hecho de que este país haya vuelto a ponerse de moda refleja la confusión del pensamiento económico de las autoridades de la zona del euro y la locura de la imitación que se da en grupos de estudios e instituciones internacionales. Un modelo socioeconómico auténtico debe construirse en torno a una “forma de hacer las cosas” arraigada: tan arraigada, en verdad, que el modelo –como el nórdico, tan reputado– resulte casi imposible de reproducir en otros lugares.

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