欧洲的选择

斯坦福—许多欧洲人现在相信,他们已经成功抵挡住了经济和金融风暴。在过去两年中,赤字和债务稳定了下来。欧元区外围疲软经济体主权债务收益率显著下降。葡萄牙和爱尔兰退出了援助计划。希腊退出欧元区的风声也日渐平息。

确实如此,但有一个大问题:欧盟经济增长仍然萎靡不振。上个季度荷兰和意大利GDP呈现收缩之势,法国则勉强持平。预测者将欧元区2014年同比增长率预测值向下修正至1%。欧元区总体失业率仍高达 11.6%,而美国在大衰退期间的最差成绩为10%。希腊和西班牙失业率更是高达25%以上——年轻人失业率甚至更高。

欧洲经济仍饱受三个问题困扰:主权债务、欧元和飘摇不定的银行——尽管欧盟已经有了不少新的政策支撑网:欧洲稳定机制(European Stability Mechanism,ESM)、欧洲央行的宽松货币政策和持有主权债务;以及11月欧洲央行接管了130家左右泛欧洲银行的监督权。所有这些改革都不足以重塑欧洲所急需的更强劲的增长。

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