El laberinto de la incertidumbre de México

Lo que hace que un país crezca es quizás el problema más fascinante de la economía y, además, uno de tremenda importancia política (de hecho, geopolítica). Al evaluar esta situación, el caso de México (que no es un tigre económico como China o Singapur, ni un pies de plomo como muchos países africanos y caribeños) puede ser particularmente instructivo.

En un viaje reciente a México hablé con muchos mexicanos acerca del estado de su economía y de sus esperanzas para el futuro. Les pregunté sobre sus expectativas de largo plazo, y sobre lo que pensaban de las perspectivas económicas de México para las próximas décadas. Lo que escuché sugiere que la sensación predominante para muchos mexicanos es una gran incertidumbre acerca de su futuro... quizás se trate de la misma incertidumbre que está en la raíz de nuestros imperfectos conocimientos sobre el crecimiento en general.

Los mexicanos parecen creer que pueden acercarse a los estándares de vida de EE.UU. en unas cuantas décadas. Pero encuentran igualmente probable que sus estándares puedan caer por debajo de lo que son hoy en día. Esta mezcla de optimismo y temor les ocurre a todos en México, tanto a los empresarios como a las familias.

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