I Problemi di Crescita in Messico

PRINCETON – Quando, più di 20 anni fa, l’allora presidente del Messico Carlos Salinas de Gortari e il suo omologo americano, Bill Clinton, firmarono il North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), la speranza era che l’economia messicana sarebbe stata trascinata in avanti da una crescente ondata di globalizzazione. In base a molti indicatori, quella speranza è stata ampiamente soddisfatta.

Dopo l’entrata in vigore del NAFTA, il volume del commercio estero del Messico (esportazioni più importazioni), quasi raddoppiando, è salito costantemente a più del 60% del PIL. Gli afflussi di investimenti esteri netti in rapporto al PIL sono triplicati. Anche se il Messico è un esportatore di petrolio, le sue esportazioni di prodotti manufatturieri hanno fatto da battistrada all’integrazione sempre più stretta della propria economia nelle reti logistiche del Nord America. Le industrie automobilistiche e dell’acciaio, una volta inefficienti e mantenute in vita da barriere commerciali protezionistiche, sono oggi molto produttive e fiorenti.

Come molti altri paesi, il Messico è stato inizialmente duramente colpito dalla concorrenza cinese sui mercati mondiali, in particolare alla fine del 2001, dopo che la Cina è diventata membro dell’Organizzazione Mondiale del Commercio. Tuttavia, la vicinanza del Messico al mercato statunitense e le sue politiche conservative in materia finanziaria, fiscale, e del lavoro hanno assicurato una protezione significativa.

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