墨西哥的增长问题

普林斯顿—20多年前,当时任墨西哥总统卡洛斯(Carlos Salinas de Gortari)和时任美国总统克林顿(Bill Clinton)签署北美自由贸易协定(North American Free Trade Agreement,NAFTA)时,人们寄希望墨西哥经济能够乘全球化的东风一飞冲天。从许多指标看,这一希望可以说已经实现。

NAFTA生效后,墨西哥对外贸易量(出口加进口)稳步攀升,现已接近翻番,达到GDP的60%以上。净外国投资流入/GDP之比翻了三倍。尽管墨西哥是石油出口国,但随着墨西哥经济日益紧密地融入了北美供给链,引领潮流的仍是制造业出口。曾经效率低下、只能依靠保护主义贸易壁垒苟延残喘的汽车和钢铁业现已成为高生产率的繁荣行业。

和其他许多国家一样,墨西哥一开始也因为在全球市场中遭遇中国的竞争而受到重创,特别是2001年底中国加入世贸组织之后。尽管如此,墨西哥凭借毗邻美国市场的地理优势和保守的货币、财政和劳动力市场政策获得了很大的保护。

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