Saudi crown prince Mohammad-bin-Salman Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

王储的新衣

巴黎——今年6月,巴林、埃及、利比亚、马尔代夫、沙特阿拉伯、阿拉伯联合酋长国和也门等国切断了与卡塔尔的外交和经济联系。此次海湾危机无论如何会以某种方式结束。但最终结果对危机的主要发起者沙特王储穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼(MBS)而言是否有益尚有待观察。

此次危机一个极端但不太可能的解决方案或许是由军队执行政权更迭,用一位更加顺从的阿勒萨尼皇室家族成员取代现任卡塔尔埃米尔谢赫·塔米姆·本·哈马德·阿勒萨尼。更有可能的结果是,卡塔尔可能停止为穆斯林兄弟会和哈马斯少数成员提供庇护所,并慎重承诺控制面向地区广播的由国家出资的半岛电视台。

在后一种情况下,调解此次争端的科威特和阿曼的外交官会自封为和平缔造者,而穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼会为自己加上政治家的头衔。担心油价和美国设在卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地未来的西方政府会稍放宽心,至少可以持续到下一次海湾危机爆发之前。但如果穆罕默德·本·萨尔曼继续推行顽固政策,而卡塔尔继续利用其石油财富在地区政治中发挥与其地位不相称的作用,爆发这样的危机或许并不太遥远。

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