Un faux-semblant de normalité en Europe

NEWPORT BEACH – En Europe, le mois d’août est traditionnellement celui des vacances, bon nombre de responsables gouvernementaux ayant pour habitude de prendre quelque semaines de repos à cette période. Un certain nombre d’initiatives importantes sont par conséquent mises en attente jusqu’au « grand retour » de début septembre.

Cette année, un aspect supplémentaire vient néanmoins ajouter à la nécessité pour l’Europe d’appuyer sur le bouton pause en ce mois d’août. Compte tenu de l’imminence des élections allemandes, peu souhaitent risquer d’entraver la victoire très probable de la chancelière Angela Merkel. L’Allemagne ne constitue-t-elle pas en effet un acteur central du bon fonctionnement de l’Europe, les qualités de fermeté de la chancelière ayant ces dernières années permis au continent de surmonter de nombreux défis. Ainsi, beaucoup préfèrent reporter les décisions politiques les plus controversées, plutôt que faire des vagues susceptibles de perturber la stabilité du navire politique allemand.

Un certain nombre de données économiques récentes semblent appuyer cette approche. Fin juillet, l’indicateur de production manufacturière en Europe, qui fait l’objet de la plus grande attention, a par exemple franchi un seuil et révélé une hausse, pour la deuxième fois seulement sur une période de 23 mois.

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